Raoul Pal, the founder and CEO of Real Vision and Global Macro Investor, believes the crypto market has “found its bottom” and that new upward momentum is likely.
The CEO of Real Vision made his comments during an interview with Layah Heilpurn, giving his outlook at a time when Bitcoin and the rest of crypto are looking to bounce after a string of fresh dips in recent days.
Bitcoin, which traded as low as near $39,000 this week, has recovered some of its losses and is currently hovering around $41,200. The BTC-USD pair is up 4% in the past 24 hours, while the crypto market cap is up 3%.
Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), BNB (BNB) XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL) have all added more than 3% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Litecoin (LTC) and Avalanche (AVAX) are some of the biggest crypto winners to date.
Crypto has not hit a new low
According to Pal, the crypto market has been hit by several macro developments in recent months. However, no new low has been reached since the last low in 2021, despite several likely negative triggers.
It is a scenario that suggests the resilience of crypto and could point to a low that is already in, although no one can predict the market for sure.
“The balance of probability is that last year we bottomed out, this year we tested the low again and I think we hit rock bottom,” he noted.
He believes cryptos have seen “everything” that could have pushed prices to new lows. That has not happened so far. He told Heilpurn:
“I think we threw a war, 8.5% inflation, the Fed raised interest rates all against crypto, we threw the Chinese ban, we threw so much at it and [yet it]did not hit a new low. This is usually a signal that the market has bottomed out.”
A slowing economy could lead to new upward action
As for new catalysts for crypto prices, Pal thinks a slowdown in economic growth would top the list. This is a scenario that will lead to buying pressure in assets that “tend to outperform in low-growth environments.”
He says a change in the economic landscape could make “people less afraid of inflation and more afraid of growth”. †
At the fair, Cathie Wood’s ARKK is a good example.
Pal also spoke about Bitcoin’s four-year cycle story, noting that these are likely to be larger given the size of the market today compared to the early years. The cycle could still have an impact, but that could be on a smaller scale as further adoption reduces wild volatility, he added.