Analyzing Bitcoin price changes based on regional working hours

bitcoin monthly price change by region working hours 2018 2022

Bitcoin’s latest upward price momentum appears to be coming from Western buyers, but continued selling pressure during the Asian hours is tempering the bullishness.

Bitcoin’s latest upward price momentum appears to be coming from Western buyers, but continued selling pressure during the Asian hours is tempering the bullishness.

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Thanks to Glassnode’s latest creativity and data engineering, we have a unique view of bitcoin’s price changes over large regional work hours. The charts below use their new data tracking the cumulative 30-day price change during trading hours in the US, EU and Asia.

This gives us an interesting picture of the market’s buying and selling pressure across geographic areas. The first chart below shows the absolute 30-day price change since 2018. As the price moves higher, the recent price changes from the past year are more noticeable in the first chart. Below we normalize this to a relative percentage change for easier historical comparisons.

Monthly buying and selling pressure due to regional working hours from 2017 to present

Over the past year, we can see the July 2021 record being sold heavily by the US and moderated by the EU with relatively minor changes on the sales side from Asia. But in its current decline from previous all-time highs, Asia has dominated selling pressure in the market and continues to do so in bitcoin’s current $35,000 to $45,000 price range. The latest price momentum to the upside and hints of increased demand lately seem to be coming from buyers from the US and EU.

Monthly buying and selling pressure by regional working hours last year

We find the data easier to compare based on a relative percentage in the charts below. More recent selling pressures in Asia (change in bitcoin price during China Standard Time working hours) have been some of the strongest selling pressures since the cycle top in December 2017.

The strongest selling pressure from the US was in the two months leading up to the July 2021 local bottom. Some of the greatest pressure on the US buy side came right after this bottom with an immediate “buy the dip” demand in August 2021. As we stand today, the 30-day percentage change in bitcoin price is up 6.4% during EU trading hours, up 7.1% in the US and down 11.1% in Asia.

30 day percentage change in buying and selling pressure by region 30 day percentage change in buying and selling pressure by region

With such divergence in buying and selling pressures across regions and lingering selling pressures in Asia right now, it may be time for cautious optimism until we see bitcoin breakout above $45,000. In our view, we still seem to be in a bear market rally period for risky assets. About $46,000 still reflects the latest on-chain short-term cost base.

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